CONSISTENCY OF MLE OF THE PARAMETER OF EXPONENTIAL LIFETIME DISTRIBUTION FOR RANDOM CENSORING MODEL WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

In this paper, we have discussed a random censoring test with incomplete information, and proved that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter based on the randomly censored data with incomplete information in the case of the exponential distribution has the strong consistency.     

An efficient estimator for the expectation of a bounded function under the residual distribution of an autoregressive process

Consider a stationary first-order autoregressive process, with i.i.d. residuals following an unknown mean zero distribution. The customary estimator for the expectation of a bounded function under the residual distribution is the empirical estimator based on the estimated residuals. We show that this estimator is not efficient, and construct a simple efficient estimator. It is adaptive with respect to the autoregression parameter.     

Adaptive Fourier tester for statistical estimation

Based on Takenaka–Malmquist (TM) system, a new nonparametric estimator for probability density function is proposed. The TM estimation method is completely different from the existent density estimation methods in that the estimator depends on an approximate system with poles in a complex plane. Compared with the classic Fourier estimator, the TM estimator will offer more flexibility and adaptivity for real data due to the poles and nonlinearity of the phase of TM system. We compare the TM estimator with kernel, wavelet, and spline estimators by simulations. It shows that the introduced TM estimator is a more promising method than the existing and commonly used methods. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

二元寿命分布的识别性及参数估计

讨论二元寿命分布的识别性及参数估计,仅是最小值的分布已知时,只有一个参数可识别,当可识最小值的分布已知时,所有参数皆可识别;由此得到了所有参数的最大似然估计.     

比例风险模型下参数估计的两种MM算法的一些应用

对于带有删失机制的生存数据的研究,比例风险模型是应用最为广泛的统计模型之一。实际中,为得到其参数的极大似然估计需要采用数值方法计算得分方程的解。MinorizationMaximization算法(以下简称"MM算法")将求解复杂的目标函数的极值问题转化为求解简单的代理函数的极值问题。本文主要探讨,在比例风险模型下通过两种不同的思想为偏似然函数构造代理函数,从而得到的两种MM算法。通过数值模拟和实际数据分析实现这两种MM算法在比例风险模型下的一些应用。     

人口普查,事后计数调查和行政记录的三系统估计量

本文采用文献综述及理论与实践相结合的研究方法构建三系统估计量。研究结果表明,三系统估计量能够较好地解决作为当今人口质量评估主流方法的双系统估计量所存在的交互作用偏差问题,显著提高人口普查净误差估计的精度。本文率先在国内提出并论证了在人口普查质量评估工作中应用三系统估计量的理论依据及其实践方法。这有助于三系统估计量在我国人口数目及人口普查净误差估计中的推广应用。     

Logistic回归模型中参数极大似然估计的二次下界算法及其应用

本文研究了Newton-Raphson等算法无法进行时探寻更加稳定的数值解法的问题.利用B¨ohningLinday(1988)提出的二次下界算法(Quadratic lower-bound),文中在Logistic回归模型下构造了极大似然函数的代理函数并进行数值模拟,获得了二次下界算法是Newton-Raphson算法的合理替代的结果,推广了数值方法在Logistic回归模型中的应用.     

A NONLINEAR GALERKIN MIXED ELEMENT METHOD AND A POSTERIORI ERROR ESTIMATOR FOR THE STATIONARY NAVIER-STOKES EQUATIONS

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The credibility premiums for exponential principle

In the classical credibility theory, the credibility premium is derived on the basis of pure premium. However, the insurance practice demands that the premium must be charged under some adaptable premium principle and serves the purpose for insurance business. In this paper, the balanced credibility models have been built under exponential principle, and the credibility estimator of individual exponential premium is derived. This result is also extended to the versions of multitude contracts, and the estimation of the structure parameters is investigated. Finally, the simulations have been introduced to show the consistency of the credibility estimator and its differences from the classical one.     

指数保费原理下的经验厘定

在经典的信度理论中,信度保费是在净保费原理下得到的. 但是, 保险商业中, 保险公司要求制定的保费必须适用于某合适的保费原理以适应具体的保险商业的需要. 本文建立了指数保费原理下的完全经验厘定模型, 得到了风险保费的信度估计和经验Bayes 信度估计, 并讨论了结构参数的估计及其性质. 最后证明了多合同模型的经验Bayes 信度估计的渐近最优性